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Description
After the Soviet Communist Revolution in the early 20th century, all socialist countries except North Korea have collapsed or changed their system. Until now, many experts on North Korea have predicted the possibility of the collapse of the “sooner period” because of various structural problems of the North Korea system. To this day, however, there are no signs of regime collapse in North Korea. Historically, dictatorships, including socialist countries, have collapsed largely for political, economic, and social reasons. The political side is the supreme leader’s control over the elite and a single party structure. The economic factor is whether it is possible to create an economic surplus for power groups. Also generating rentier income is a key factor. On the social side, the key is whether there is an actor who can cause political change and whether a dictator can use means of oppression. Eastern European socialist countries, including the Soviet Union, collapsed for the above reasons. China and Vietnam had no choice but to change their systems. Despite the various contradictions of their system, North Korea succeeded in the third hereditary succession, leading to Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un. The driving force behind this is the overwhelming one-man power monopoly system that began with Kim Il Sung. In addition, a distorted economic system in which economic interests are concentrated in some power groups also plays an important role. Finally, the extreme oppressive rule that continues until the Kim Jong Un era can be cited. North Korea maintains its internal control system “either way” based on the above political, economic, and social specificities, but it cannot be judged that the North Korea regime will be stable in the future. Due to the international community’s sanctions against North Korea, foreign economic conditions are on the verge of deterioration. In addition, there are clearly elements of division among some elite power groups. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for various sudden changes in North Korea. This is because military tensions on the Korean Peninsula could trigger a series of military actions by neighboring countries.
